The seasonal outlook for October to December 2026 indicates a strong likelihood of above-normal rainfall and above-average temperatures in much of Eastern Africa. Central and southern Somalia, along with southern Ethiopia and Kenya, are specifically highlighted as areas with an increased risk of extreme rainfall and subsequent flooding.

The anticipated extreme rainfall poses significant flood risks, which could exacerbate existing humanitarian challenges in vulnerable regions.

The country is currently hosting 6 refugees and 112,934 internally displaced persons, who may be particularly vulnerable to the projected flood risks.

The specific impact of these weather patterns on food security, health, and infrastructure is not yet detailed in recent reporting.