Violence in Baidoa, South West State, has intensified, causing significant damage to civilian infrastructure and displacing residents. This insecurity is disrupting access to essential services, including healthcare, for communities already facing high humanitarian needs. Concurrently, the deyr rains have begun in various parts of the country, including Somaliland, Hirshabelle, Bay region, and parts of Jubaland, with some areas reporting heavy rainfall. The El Niño phenomenon is strengthening, with a high probability of above-normal rainfall expected across central and southern Somalia from October to December.

The escalating conflict in Baidoa will worsen the humanitarian situation, increasing the number of internally displaced persons and hindering aid delivery to vulnerable populations. The anticipated heavy rainfall from El Niño, while potentially beneficial for agriculture, also poses risks to water infrastructure and could lead to flooding, further complicating humanitarian efforts and potentially displacing more people. The combination of conflict and extreme weather events places immense pressure on an already strained humanitarian response, which is currently funded at 66% of requirements.

Monitor the trajectory of the El Niño event and its impact on water resources and infrastructure, particularly in central and southern Somalia. Observe the extent of new displacements and damage to civilian infrastructure resulting from the ongoing violence in Baidoa. Track the effectiveness of humanitarian access and aid delivery in areas affected by both conflict and heavy rainfall.

The provided information does not detail the specific actors involved in the escalating violence in Baidoa or the immediate impact of the deyr rains on displacement or humanitarian access.