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Country briefing

Weekly deep dive: Nigeria (2026-W38)

Humanitarian overview with dated reports, alerts and key figures from trusted sources.

Weekly deep dive: Nigeria

2026-W38

El Niño conditions are firmly established and are forecast to persist through February 2027, with implications for humanitarian needs.

What changed

El Niño is now firmly established and is expected to reach very strong intensity. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecasts a nearly 100% likelihood that these conditions will persist through February 2027. The event is anticipated to strengthen further and peak towards the end of the year.

Why it matters

The sustained and intensifying El Niño conditions will likely exacerbate existing humanitarian vulnerabilities, particularly impacting sectors such as food and nutrition, health, and water, sanitation, and hygiene. This prolonged period of climatic stress could lead to increased humanitarian needs across various regions, including Nigeria, which already faces significant displacement.

What to watch

Monitor the specific impacts of El Niño on rainfall patterns and agricultural yields in Nigeria, as these will directly influence food security. Observe how the strengthening El Niño affects water resource availability and the prevalence of water-borne diseases. Track any shifts in humanitarian funding requirements and allocations in response to the prolonged El Niño event.

Information gaps

The provided excerpts do not detail the specific anticipated impacts of El Niño on Nigeria, nor do they offer country-specific humanitarian response updates for the current week.